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United States: Job gains beat expectations in June
Latest reading: US nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June 2025, up from a revised 144,000 in May and exceeding expectations of 110,000. Federal government jobs fell further as part of the new Trump administration’s push to slim the size of the state, while employment rose in health care and state government. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% from 4.2% in May.
The data shows that the labor market remained robust in Q2, notwithstanding the shock from the imposition of higher import tariffs on a raft of goods.
Panelist insight: Digging into the data, Nomura analysts said:
“[The employment] report should be healthy enough to keep the Fed patient about resuming rate cuts. However, the drivers of strength in this report appear noisy and likely short-lived. We see broader evidence that underlying employment growth is cooling, and continue to expect the unemployment rate will drift higher through the year.”
