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Serbia: NBS leaves rates unchanged in November
Central Bank stands pat: At its meeting on 13 November, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) decided to keep the key policy rate at 5.75% for the fourteenth consecutive month. The hold was in line with market expectations.
NBS weighs risks: On one hand, a rate hike was not warranted given that inflation fell sharply to well within the Bank’s 1.5–4.5% target range in September as a result of the government’s six-month measure capping wholesale and retail trade margins. Moreover, the NBS expects inflation to remain on target ahead.
On the other hand, the NBS likely decided not to cut rates as U.S. sanctions on Russian-owned oil firm NIS could prove inflationary. Elevated international uncertainty further supported a wait-and-see approach.
Interest rates to be lowered in 2026: The NBS did not provide specific forward guidance, and our panel remains split for year-end: About half of our panelists expect the Bank to stay put, while the rest forecast cuts. In contrast, all of our panelists project looser monetary conditions by the end of 2026, with easing of 50 to 125 basis points from current levels.
