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United States: Inflation rises in September from August
Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 3.0% on a year-on-year basis in September, following a 2.9% increase in the prior month. The reading was above the Fed’s 2.0% target but undershot market expectations.
Relative to the previous month’s data, there were higher price pressures for transportation (+1.8% on a year-on-year basis vs +1.1% in August) and energy (+2.9% vs +0.4% in August). In contrast, price pressures reduced for food in September(+3.1% vs +3.2% in August). Finally, the variation in housing prices was the same as in the prior month (+3.6% in September and August).
Meanwhile, core consumer prices were up 3.0% in annual terms in September, following a 3.1% increase in the prior month.
Lastly, consumer prices were up 0.31% in September in month-on-month terms, following a 0.38% rise in the previous month.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Nomura analysts said:
“Overall, we think that the underlying inflation trend remained essentially unchanged in September and that tariffs continued to exert upward pressure on core goods prices. Looking ahead, we see upside risks to the inflation outlook, both in the near and medium term. For the coming months, we expect core goods inflation will accelerate in Q4, as the tariff impact continues to materialize. Next year, we think rent disinflation will be slow, supercore service inflation will remain sticky, and wage growth will remain elevated.”
