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Widely followed quant analyst PlanB is taking an opposing view to most traders about the chances of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $300,000.
In a new strategy session, pseudonymous BTC analyst PlanB tells his 216,000 YouTube subscribers that while most market participants don’t expect BTC to reach $300,000 by the end of 2026, he does.
“Now, 60% of people think that Bitcoin will not reach $300,000 by the end of 2026 – that’s this line, one and a half years from now. So, by the end of next year, this is the $300,000 point. Sixty percent of people think we’re not going to get there. In my opinion, we will. In fact, I think we’ll go a little higher, to the stock-to-flow target of $500,000 on average.
That’s a very rough model, of course, based on scarcity and the stock-to-flow ratio. It has a range of $250,000 to $1 million, so the average could be $300,000 or $600,000. That’s all good, but at the very least, it will be higher than what most people think.”
The stock-to-flow model is a predictive tool that assumes the scarcity of a commodity drives the price. While originally created to track traditional commodities, PlanB was the first to apply it to Bitcoin.
The analyst is also watching Bitcoin’s realized price indicator, which looks at what price certain cohorts of coins were last transacted on-chain, divided by the number of bitcoins in circulation. Given that the price of BTC is above all the major cohorts, PlanB says there are no signs of a bear market to be seen.
“Now, that’s classic bull market behavior, right? You can see that in all bull markets – the 2-year is above the realized, the 6-month is above the 2-year, and then Bitcoin, represented by the red dots, is above them all.
So there’s no bear market warning signs whatsoever.”
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BTC is worth $115,043 at time of writing, up 1% on the day.
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