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Economist Alex Krüger says he’s de-risking his portfolio amid uncertain economic headwinds.
Krüger tells his 209,800 followers on the social media platform X that the US economy “is in the very early stages of a severe deceleration (and potential recession).”
He predicts the impending economic downturn will begin to matter in June and materialize in economic data in July.
Krüger also notes his preferred upside risk investment is Bitcoin (BTC).
“Granted, I am biased, but do think that it has started to trade as a risk/gold hybrid (still more weighted towards risk) and therefore it may provide a very rare ‘tails I win, heads I win as well’ risk profile. The jury is still out.
Mid-term, I do not know if the second half of the year will be a raging bull market or a crash and burn 2008 style market. Both are ironically possible. We will have to see in what direction and how aggressively Trump decides to swing. And what other measures he pushes through (e.g. tax cuts). My base case scenario is somewhere in the middle. That said, the most important thing here is that Trump has introduced a massive left tail that it would normally not exist.”
The economist also cautions traders against chasing altcoins in the current environment.
“There is zero reason to FOMO in a Trump 2.0 world. There will be dips. Many dips.”
