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China: Exports decline in October
Latest reading: In October, the trade balance was USD +90.1 billion, following a USD +90.4 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +1167.7 billion.
Exports declined 1.1% in year-on-year terms in October, coming on the back of an 8.3% increase in the prior month and contrasting market expectations of an increase. October’s fall was the first since February, and evidence that previous front-loading of goods is running its course. Imports increased 1.0% in year-on-year terms in October, coming on the back of 7.4% growth in the prior month.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Goldman Sachs analysts said:
“While payback effects from earlier front-loading may weigh on export growth somewhat in the coming months, we expect China’s export growth to remain resilient in 2026 on structural tailwinds.”
