Canada GDP July 2025

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Canada: Economy recovers in July

GDP reading: GDP increased 0.2% in seasonally adjusted month-on-month terms in July, following a 0.1% fall in the previous month and above the flash estimate of +0.1%.

Drivers: Mining, energy, manufacturing and services all grew in July.

GDP outlook: Early estimates suggest real GDP flatlined in August, as gains in wholesale and retail trade were cancelled out by declines in mining, oil and gas, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing.

Panelist insight: TD Economics’ Marc Ercolao said:

“Growth in Canada’s tariff-impacted industries contributed most to July’s brighter-than expected print. Stabilization across these sectors underpins our view that GDP growth in the third quarter is set to recover modestly after last quarter’s trade-driven contraction.”