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Wells Fargo thinks the U.S. Federal Reserve is primed to go on a rate-cutting spree amid a “precarious” labor market.
In a new economic analysis, the banking giant predicts the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will slash the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at each of its next three meetings.
The Fed has FOMC meetings scheduled for next week, late October and early December.
Wells Fargo also projects two more 25 basis point rate cuts at the March and June meetings next year, which, in total, would bring the federal funds rate down from its current target range of 4.25%-4.50% to 3.00%-3.25%.
The banking giant points to a recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report as a factor behind its projections.
“The US labor market is in a precarious position, in our view, and this is the primary driver of our more dovish monetary policy outlook. The three-month moving average on nonfarm payroll growth was a measly 29,000 in August, and data from private sector sources corroborate the trend in the BLS data. Slowing labor supply growth can account for some of this deceleration, but the unemployment rate hit a fresh cycle-high of 4.3% last month, and the soft data continue to point to souring sentiment among workers about job availability.”
