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Argentina: Economic activity decelerates in August
Latest reading: Economic activity was up 2.4% in annual terms in August, following a 3.1% rise in the prior month and slightly below market expectations.
Relative to the prior month’s data, readings in August softened for agriculture (-1.4% on a year-on-year basis vs +1.2% in July), manufacturing (-5.1% vs -1.3% in July) and construction (+1.5% vs +2.8% in July). In contrast, readings improved for transport and communications (+2.6% vs +0.9% in July) and hotels and restaurants (+6.4% vs +6.0% in July).
In month-on-month terms, economic activity rose 0.3% in August, following a 0.1% fall in the prior month and putting an end to three consecutive contractions.
Panelist insight: On the reading and outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 stands at 3.8%. Due to the weak performance of leading indicators and the impact of high real interest rates on consumption amid political turmoil, a technical recession in 3Q25 is likely, despite the recent sequential monthly rebound.”
