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Uruguay: Inflation falls to over one-year low in June
Latest reading: Inflation eased to 4.6% in June from May’s 5.1%, marking the lowest inflation rate since May 2024 and surprising markets on the downside. Moreover, this was the third consecutive decline, confirming a downward trend toward the midpoint of the Central Bank’s 3.0–6.0% inflation target. Looking at the details of the release, June’s downturn was broad-based, with softer price growth in food, transportation plus housing and utilities.
As a result, the trend pointed down slightly, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.2% in June (May: 5.3%).
Lastly, consumer prices dropped 0.09% in June over the previous month, swinging from the 0.11% rise logged in May. June’s result marked the weakest reading since December 2023.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Lucila Barbeito and Diego W. Pereira, analysts at JPMorgan, stated
“Regarding forecasts, the deceleration in headline inflation proved faster than expected on tradable CPI, prompting us to adjust our headline year-end projection further downward […]. Our forecast entertains an acceleration in monthly inflation in 2H25 to 0.3% monthly average as we anticipate structurally sticky non-tradable prices. On this regard, it is worth noting that the government unveiled today the next 2 year wage guidelines, proposing real salary increases between 2-4%, conditional on income level.”
