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United States: Job gains undershoot expectations in August
Latest reading: U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 in August 2025, falling well short of market expectations. Job gains in health care were partially offset by losses in federal government and mining. Moreover, the unemployment rate rose to a near-four-year high of 4.3%.
The latest data shows that the economy has added very few new jobs since April, which could weigh on private spending going forward.
Panelist insight: Digging into the data, TD Economics’ Thomas Feltmate said:
“There’s no escaping that the labor market is softening, and quickly. Once again, there was a low response rate in the August survey, at less than 60%. This suggests we could see further downward revisions in next month’s release when the response rate typically returns to 90% or more. Further signs of weakness were also evident in the household survey, where measures of unemployment and underemployment each reached new cyclical highs of 4.3% and 8.1%, respectively.”
