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India: Merchandise exports drop in May
Latest reading: Merchandise exports decreased 2.2% annually in May, contrasting April’s 9.0% increase. Meanwhile, merchandise imports fell 1.7% over the same month last year in May (April: +19.1% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 21.9 billion deficit in May (April 2025: USD 26.4 billion deficit; May 2024: USD 22.1 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 289.9 billion deficit in May, compared to the USD 290.1 billion deficit in April.
Outlook: Our panelists continue to expect India’s merchandise exports to broadly flatline in 2025, largely as a result of U.S. tariffs stifling external demand. The Indian government continues to seek an agreement with its U.S. counterpart to avoid tariffs rising to 26% from 10% on 9 July.
