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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes thinks downside continuation is possible for Bitcoin (BTC) even after witnessing a 24% correction from its all-time high.
In a new post on the social media platform X, the crypto veteran outlines a series of events that he thinks would pressure the Federal Reserve to pivot and end its restrictive monetary policies.
Hayes sees Bitcoin capitulating alongside the US stock market but says that those events will not be enough to trigger a Fed intervention. According to the Maelstrom CIO, the collapse of traditional financial (TradFi) firms in the US would force the Fed to end quantitative tightening (QT) – a move that would drive other major central banks to follow suit.
“BTC likely bottoms around $70,000. A 36% correction from the $110,000 all-time high is very normal for a bull market.
Then we need stonks, SPX (S&P 500) and NDX (Nasdaq Index) to enter free fall. Then we need TradFi muppet to go under.
THEN we get the Fed, PBOC (People’s Bank of China), ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) all easing to make their country great again.
THEN you load up the truck.
Traders will try to buy the dip, if you are more risk averse wait for the central banks to ease then deploy more capital. You might not catch the bottom but you also won’t have to mentally suffer through a long period of sideways and potentially unrealized losses.”
According to Hayes, Bitcoin will likely witness wild price swings once it gets close to his downside price target due to the massive number of outstanding derivative contracts, or open interest (OI), at the low $70,000 price area.
“There are a lot of options OI struck at $70,000-$75,000, if we get into that range it will be violent.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $82,780, up nearly 5% in the past day.
