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Kalshi, the only U.S. exchange cleared to offer event-based trading, is adding Elon Musk’s Grok AI to its platform, giving users access to real-time data and odds analysis before placing bets on outcomes ranging from Fed rate decisions to movie awards.
The integration was announced by both companies on X. Kalshi users can now query Grok for historical market data, breaking news, and on-chain activity. The move gives Musk’s xAI a live environment to test Grok’s ability to analyze probabilities in real-time markets.
Kalshi operates under the oversight of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), offering contracts that pay out $1 if the selected outcome happens, and nothing if it doesn’t. While traders can deposit using crypto like Bitcoin, Solana, USDC, and Worldcoin, all positions settle in U.S. dollars.
The New York-based firm was founded in 2018 by MIT graduates Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. It saw a spike in activity during the 2024 U.S. election cycle, processing $1.4 billion in volume over 11 days, according to FIA Expo data.
The Grok integration comes weeks after Kalshi raised $185 million in a Series B round led by crypto-focused firm Paradigm, giving it a $2 billion valuation. Meanwhile, Musk’s xAI was valued at around $80 billion after absorbing X in an all-stock deal, according to Axios.
“Two of the fastest-growing companies in America are now on the same team,” xAI said on its official account.
The partnership lands as regulators revisit the legal status of political betting. In June, the CFTC reopened its public comment period on election markets, following Kalshi’s 2024 court win that overturned the agency’s prior ban on such contracts.
Rival prediction market Polymarket is also eyeing a U.S. comeback and is reportedly in talks to acquire derivatives exchange QCEX as part of its expansion strategy.
Earlier in March, Kalshi filed lawsuits against the Nevada Gaming Control Board (GCB) and New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE) after both state regulators ordered the company to halt its sports-related event contracts.
Kalshi argues that as a federally regulated commodities exchange, it falls under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — not state gambling regulators.
Kalshi is pushing back, arguing that its event contracts function as financial derivatives — not wagers — and that they fall within the regulatory framework established by Congress via the Commodity Exchange Act. The lawsuits claim the state actions are both field-preempted and conflict-preempted by federal law, meaning that state enforcement would override and interfere with federal authority.
The core of the dispute is whether event-based trading — such as betting on a sports game outcome or an election result — should be classified as gambling, which is traditionally regulated by states, or regulated financial trading, overseen at the federal level.
